s/
Stockslash
Ctrl K

Where is the market right now?

How expensive stocks are compared with history, and whether the warning signs that came before past recessions are on.

TodayInvestor mood

Stocks are very expensive by historical standards, but none of the recession warning signs are on.

As of Oct 19, 2026

How pricey are stocks?

Very expensive
3 of the 4 price checks are near record highs
Why we say that
Tap one for the chart.

Is a recession coming?

Calm
No recession warning signs right now
Why we say that
Signs that came before past recessions. Tap one for the chart.
A snapshot, not a forecast: expensive markets can stay expensive for years, and warning signs give false alarms. Not investment advice. How to read this

Price gauges

Four ways to measure stock prices against history. Tap one for its full chart.

Economy gauges

Jobs, credit and interest-rate signals that have warned before past recessions. The yield curve and the Sahm rule are judged against their trigger lines.

Inflation and interest rates

Inflation is judged against the Fed's goal, the Fed's rate against its own long-run estimate.

How the thermometers work: each gauge's percentile is the share of its own full history (for example, CAPE since 1881) at or below today's reading; gauges where low means risk (the stock-vs-bond reward) are flipped so right always means pricier or more stressed. The headline counts how many gauges sit in the same extreme bucket; the marker is the median percentile, which one broken gauge cannot drag. A gauge whose data lags the newest in its group by more than four of its own updates (at least 120 days) is marked stale and left out. Faint ticks are the individual gauges (hollow = stale). The recession card does not use percentiles: its three warning signs (yield curve, Sahm rule, financial conditions) are each On or Off against the trigger line that came before past recessions, and its verdict is the number that are On (0 = Calm, 1 = Some stress, 2 or more = Stressed).

Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) for Treasury yields, GDP, corporate equity, employment, jobless claims, inflation, money supply and financial conditions; Robert Shiller (Yale) for CAPE and S&P 500 earnings; FINRA for margin debt. For information only, not investment advice.